Tuesday 20 November 2012

My love/hate relationship with the "go for it" year

Tomorrow, the Wildcats travel to Cape Breton to face off against Alexandre Lavoie and the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles. I say "Alexandre Lavoie and the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles" because the aforementioned Mr.Lavoie is third in the whole great big friggin league in scoring! His 40 points (in 24 games... which is seven fewer than he scored in 65 games last year) is three less than... Josh Currie! He's tied with the league lead in scoring along with linemate Ben Duffy. If you picked Currie and Lavoie to be in the top 3 in scoring... stop lying. You're so full of s*** it's not funny. As an aside, I've always liked Josh Currie... it's great to see him play against the rest of the league the way he usually saved only for Moncton, or so it seemed.

Speaking of Moncton, this year has been unofficially tagged as a "go for it" year... which in theory makes sense. The team is now three seasons removed from their most recent President's Cup victory. They are - on paper - strong at all three positions, including one of the very best groups of 20 year olds in the league, a dynamic duo of European forwards and solid - if unspectacular depth - at defense. On paper, the team was pegged to finish top four in the league, challenging superpowers Halifax and Quebec on a nightly basis.

Instead, the team that looked solid on paper has stumbled on the ice. The goaltending has been good for at least one bad goal almost every game... the defense is coming along, but was a comedy of errors at times for most of September and October, and the offense has been either come and go, or playing games like Saturday night where they score four, but are still out of sync enough that - combined with other factors of varying degrees- they walk away empty handed. Again, on paper (on paper, on paper, on paper... really getting tired of saying that) this team should add a couple depth defensemen, maybe a couple guys for the third line that could put up 30-40 points and a "1A type goaltender" that can both push and compliment Alex Dubeau.

One problem with all that... it costs a pretty little penny to fill holes like that. A penny that the Wildcats may have a tough time coming up with (and I don't mean Ryan Penny, either... although he could be a future in some deal, I suppose).

I should stop right now and say this - this Wildcats team is talented and should by rights be situated higher in the standings than they actually are. This team is more the group we've seen in November than it is the team we've seen in September and most of October. As well, having a guy like Danny Flynn in your organization is as valuable as any player on the roster. His savvy as both a coach and a GM serves the organization as good or better than most others in the league at those positions. He literally made every single right move in bringing the 2010 President's Cup Champion team together and I have complete confidence in him that if anyone can do it here this year, he's the guy I want pulling the strings.

However, the need for depth at all three positions should be a concern, particularly defense and in net. What kind of depth? Well, last time around, Flynn brought in Alex Wall to play on the third pairing. Third pairing because he was behind last years top scoring dman in the AHL, the 2010 CHL defenseman of the year and a former 1st overall pick in the Q draft. By comparison, the following year he was the second dman on a very strong Quebec team. If he was here this year, Wall would probably be the 2/3 guy, battling along with Racine and Narbonne for one of those three spots. To me, that's very telling. In today's Q, you need the horses on the backend... and if a horse goes down, you need to have the bodies to shuffle things around and keep moving forward. There's plenty of potential throughout the Wildcats defense corps, but how much of that potential is going to be capable of stepping up this year if circumstances require it? Not saying they can't, but I am saying it's a huge question mark as of today. It'll either cost you assets to solidify... or it'll cost you if you take the gamble on what you have to work with now and it fails.

In nets, maybe things take care of themselves with the addition of Cole Holowenko. If they don't, there might as well be a ticking time bomb in that 4'x6' opening at the end of the rink. You can't play Dubeau to death (see Will, Roman) and you need someone ready to step in on a moment's notice if injury or grossly inconsistent play rears it's ugly head toward the number one guy. You don't really need a top flight starter type guy... but you need one who could be starter for a stretch if that's what it comes down to. Right now - much like the "potential depth" on defense - it's a huge unknown whether or not that exists... and it'll cost you  (or cost you, as the case may be).

Up front, the top two lines are set... Maybe you bring in another top 6 guy and shuffle the rest of the lineup... maybe you upgrade the offense on the third line. Keep in mind that on the 2006 team, guys like Brad Marchand, Matt Marquardt and Jerome Samson spent time on the third line that year... some with regularity... those guys are not on this team in that capacity. Omce again, lot's of guys who are likable, work hard, pitch in occasionally on offence and would be welcomed by any team in the league. Only problem is, on the very best teams, they're probably not on the third line. Is this last upgrade an out and out requirement? Not necessarily... but a little insurance never hurt any team... and insurance will cost you.

So, it's not any great big piece the Cats could use... it's a number of somewhat smaller ones. Then there's the other aspect of this team... that would be the owner... and he wants to win - badly. It's common knowledge that his team's inability to be the first Maritime based franchise to capture a Memorial Cup really stuck in his craw and if anything, it's going to prompt him to perhaps request all measures - no matter what the cost - to be taken for this team to be a winner. When that happens, things can get tense and expectations start getting very heavy... and then you could run into a situation like 2000. I remember the expectations being very palpable in the rink that year, from January onward. Now, expectations are an excellent thing most times... that year, it made things very uneasy... almost like everyone on the team was looking over their shoulders, anxious to get results and playing to not lose instead of playing to win. Also, the next two seasons after that were no picnic, either.

So, what does Moncton do? Do they scrap things and start the PEI Rocket-esque six year rebuild (not likely)? Do they continue to tinker, ala the Narbonne trade, trying to get serviceable (but not star) guys on the depth chart for minimal cost? Or do they sell the farm, drain the bank account and try and get fair value on the farmer's daughter (she has all her teeth... she's a keeper by golly!)?

I'm hoping for #2 but am afraid #3 could rear it's ugly head, leaving Moncton with a depleted lineup for the next few years and no first round picks until the days of Allain Saulnier, Jr. I also hope this doesn't disrupt the front office of the organization either, as the best guys available to rebuild this team are here already, trying to build a winner now. It's going to be an interesting next two months. This whole operation could be in for one wild ride and the decisions that are yet to be made will undoubtedly alter the course of this organization well into it's 20th anniversary season and beyond.

I'm just ever so thankful someone else has to pull the strings.

4 comments:

  1. It indeed a tough spot for Flynn, given all the talent being 19 or 20, if you only go in halfway you lose most of young big guns next year anyways, may as well go "all in".

    The tes will be the next 10 games, do they follow the recent trend and go 7-3 or 8-2 or go back to the 4-5-1 of September.

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  2. If you're going to post this crap, at least get your facts straight!

    PEI is not on a 6 year rebuild plan. Yhey're on a 10 year plan!

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  3. The Wildcats will tinker and add a top-6 forward to play alongside the euros and a top-4 dman. They've really picked up their play lately(going 7-3-0 in last 10 games) and with a few tinkers will challenge all contenders. The Wildcats are much better than their record shows(slow start) and they've come together as a team. Go Cats Go

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  4. All of that won't be good enough if Dubeau can't be consistent. I remember back in 05/06 where Blanchard was not good enough for Nolan/Flynn mainly because he was 18 and unproven. Dubeau is also unproven ... unless you call their last year playoff failure and his shitting the bed in his single start of the Mem Cup ... being proven. He has proven to me that he isn't good enough to win a championship ... and nothing more. Blanchard was far better at 18 than Dubeau is now.

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